Every NFL season forces bettors to face a simple question, and Week 1 always raises the stakes. Should you back the favorite for a smaller, steadier return, or chase the bigger payout that comes with an underdog? The answer has less to do with the matchup itself and more to do with how much risk a bettor is actually comfortable carrying.
Bettors comparing spreads and totals often start by checking the full board, and starting by reviewing the NFL odds for Week 1 on Betnown before placing a wager gives a clearer picture of where the value lies. Lines move throughout the week as money comes in on both sides, so an early look at the numbers helps set a baseline before kickoff narrows the gap.
What Favorites and Underdogs Actually Represent
A favorite is simply the team a sportsbook expects to win, marked with a minus sign next to the point spread or moneyline. An underdog carries a plus sign and represents the side given extra points, or better payout odds, because the book expects them to lose outright or by more than the spread.
Neither side is inherently the smarter bet. The NFL Week 1 odds for a given game reflect a combination of roster strength, injuries, travel, and public perception, and all of those factors shift the closer a game gets to Sunday.
Favorites and the Case for Consistency
Backing a favorite generally means accepting shorter odds in exchange for a higher likelihood of winning the bet. A bettor who wagers on a heavy favorite at -200 needs to risk two dollars to win one, which only makes sense as part of a strategy built around frequency rather than big scores.
This approach tends to suit bettors who prefer steady, smaller wins over time instead of chasing a single large payout. It also requires discipline, since even strong favorites lose often enough in the NFL that a long losing streak can happen with almost no warning.
Underdogs and the Appeal of Upside
Underdogs offer the opposite trade-off. A plus money bet returns more than the amount risked, and because Week 1 is famously unpredictable, teams coming off a down year can open the season with a chip on their shoulder that outside bettors do not fully price in.
The NFL Week 1 lines each September consistently include a handful of games where the spread looks tighter than expected once game week practice reports and roster news come in. Bettors comfortable with more variance often find that underdog bets, or point spread bets on a favorite instead of the moneyline, offer better long-term value than always taking the safer side.
How to Match Bet Type to Risk Tolerance
There is no universally correct way to bet, only a way that matches an individual bettor’s comfort level and bankroll.
● Low-Risk Approaches
Bettors who prioritize consistency generally stick to favorites on the spread and not to the moneyline, since the spread offers closer to even odds regardless of how lopsided the matchup looks on paper. Totals betting and wagering on whether combined points go over or under a set number is another lower-variance option that removes team allegiance from the equation entirely.
● Higher Risk Approaches
Bettors seeking bigger returns often turn to underdog moneylines, parlays, or player props, all of which carry longer odds and a lower hit rate in exchange for larger payouts. The NFL Week 1 betting odds for outright underdog moneylines can run well into plus money territory, particularly in divisional games where recent history suggests a closer contest than the spread implies.
How to Read the Market Before You Bet
Lines rarely stay static from the moment they are posted to opening kickoff. Sharp money, injury news, and weather reports all push numbers in one direction or another, and tracking those shifts across the week can reveal where the smart money is landing.
Checking the NFL opening-week odds as soon as they are released, then following how they move gives bettors a much fuller picture than a single glance the morning of the game. A line that opens at three points and drifts to five by Sunday is telling a story worth paying attention to.
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